Who Is Right About Stock Market –Yale vs Penn.

Posted on Posted in Daily Blog Post


I don’t care who is going to be right or wrong as long as I make money. It is like what Deng’s famous quote - It doesn't matter whether the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.

There is always a time to buy (LONG) and a time to sell (SHORT) and if you know when to act, you don’t care which direction it goes.

So what do analysts like Richard Russell or academics such as Robert Shiller repeatedly miss? They miss the significance of TIMING in terms of MOMENTUM and SENTIMENT which drive the TREND which is ACCUMULATIVE.

I personally believe we are still far from seeing the high yet but in the next few weeks starting from late August-September, we may see BIG decline for the major correction to unfold before a big rally from November to the end of the year.

The following article (from Mitch Tuchman of market-watch) is quite interesting to read as both are famous but with different opinion.

Are stocks going up from here, or is the market overpriced and likely to fall?

Millions of Americans have seen their retirements recover from the depths of the 2008 stock collapse. Now two of the best-known voices in the investment world are at odds over what's next.

If you're trying to be a successful market timer, to buy or sell before the masses, well, you've got your work cut out. Robert Shiller is a Nobel laureate, an economist and a professor at Yale. Jeremy Siegel is a respected professor of finance at Pennsylvania's Wharton School. And they appear to disagree over the likely direction of stocks.

"We've got stocks and bonds highly priced, and now we're starting to see housing maybe going in the same direction," Shiller told CNBC. "It's like everything, everything is pricey." He went on to suggest that simple anxiety might be the reason asset classes have moved higher. We need to be reassured of our financial security, so we bid things up in value.

Bias trouble

Siegel was right on Shiller's heels, offering the view that stocks have room to run higher and likely will. Widely known for his pro-equity stance, Siegel said that the bull market is still intact and that we could end the year at Dow 18,000 or higher.

"We live in a world of uncertainty and bull markets actually climb the wall of worry," Siegel said. "When we see nothing in the future that can worry us at all, I'll get worried and I'll probably tell people to sell stocks."

If you're a trader, and the market is full of them, you could take both of these points of view, shake them up in a bag and pull out whichever one you like. Behavioral scientists call this "confirmation bias." Once a well-known figure supports your idea, that's all the evidence you need.

If you have decided instead to be an investor, then the guesses of experts, however lionized they might be in the press, are still just guesses. Well-informed and well-meaning predictions sometimes will be right and sometimes will be dangerously wrong.

Investing, not trading

If you're feeling confirmed in your biases, go ahead and buy or sell, whatever the case may be. However, none of the pundits will be providing you with retirement insurance.

The truth is, a serious, long-term investor is served by declining markets. Steady buying during down cycles is a great way to build wealth over decades of saving and investing.

Likewise, a balanced, low-cost portfolio will never require you to correctly guess the direction of any investment. Instead, a good portfolio over time will edge you toward calmer shores. No predictions required.

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