Yes, the market is in trouble but the question is – is it going to crash now or later in the year 2014?. I don’t think market is vulnerable to any crash this year, which generally means a disastrous drop of more than 20%. History says don’t bet on the crash yet if the following chart from Deutsche Bank is good enough to support my stock outlook towards the end of the year.
But certainly, the market right now is showing negative divergence (chart below) and exhausted. However, I expect a major correction of 10% to start in August-September. It is time to play cautious and remain on the sideline. Those who still have stocks in hand should start to liquidate all positions (sell into strength) and look for opportunity to buy again sometimes in late October for a year- end rally and a new high next year.